Il lupo in numeri: i risultati del monitoraggio del lupo 2020/2021

In Italia, sono stati pubblicati i risultati delle analisi dati ottenuti nel monitoraggio nazionale del lupo 2020/2021: un’iniziativa coordinata da ISPRA, su mandato del MITE- Ministero per la Transizione Ecologica per l’Italia peninsulare e da LIFE WolfAlps EU per tutte le regioni alpine (Liguria, Piemonte, Lombardia, Trentino, Alto Adige, Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia). 

Nel corso del monitoraggio nazionale del lupo, sull’arco alpino sono stati raccolti 10.672 segni di presenza della specie: 5.636 escrementi, 3.226 tra video e foto. Sono stati tracciati i percorsi dei lupi su neve per un totale di 1605 km, e recuperati 71 lupi morti.  Tutto ciò è stato possibile solo grazie al coinvolgimento circa di 1.513 operatori del “Network Lupo Regioni Alpine”che hanno percorso ben 40.725 km per eseguire il campionamento.

È  la prima volta che viene realizzata una stima esaustiva a livello delle regioni alpine e su scala nazionale. Non solo, è una delle prime stime a livello di popolazione ottenute in Europa, quindi di grande valenza internazionale. La stima è stata ottenuta applicando modelli statistici innovativi, messi a punto da un team internazionale di tre Università (Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Università di Torino e Università di Chester) specializzate nello studio dell’abbondanza e andamento nel tempo delle popolazioni animali. Grazie a questa analisi si è ottenuta una stima della dimensione della popolazione accurata, cui è associata una forchetta di errore, un intervallo che indica il livello di accuratezza del valore stimato, detto intervallo di credibilità. Quindi nel 2020/2021 sono 946, con un intervallo tra 822 e 1099, i lupi presenti nelle regioni alpine. Di questi, 680 (intervallo di credibilità: 602-774) individui fanno parte della parte centro-occidentale della popolazione e 266 (intervallo di credibilità: 204-343) appartengono alla sezione centro-orientale della popolazione. Sono invece 102 i branchi e 22 le coppie presenti nelle regioni alpine , per un totale di 124 unità riproduttive. La maggior parte di esse si concentra nella porzione occidentale dell’arco alpino, dove sono presenti 91 branchi/coppie. Nell’area centro orientale sono invece 33 i branchi/coppie, quasi la metà delle quali ha territori transregionali.

Sulla sezione download-relazioni tecniche del nostro sito potete trovare il report e i report di dettaglio di Piemonte, Liguria, Lombardia e Trentino. 

Sul canale YouTube di ISPRA è possibile vedere un video in cui i ricercatori spiegano le varie fasi del monitoraggio nazionale, dalla raccolta dati alle analisi, sulla pagina Facebook del MUSE è invece disponibile il video di presentazione del report delle regioni alpine.

In Slovenia, nel 2020/2021, sono stati individuati 12 branchi. La super popolazione, che include la Slovenia e l’area confinante della Croazia ha una dimensione stimata di 138 lupi (121-168; 95% intervallo di confidenza), mentre il numero stimato per la sola Slovenia è di 120 lupi (106-147; 95% intervallo di confidenza).

Potete leggere il report completo qui.In Francia sono stati pubblicati i risultati del monitoraggio estivo 2021. Il numero di Aree di Presenza Permanente è in aumento sul territorio nazionale. C’è stato un aumento significativo del numero di segni raccolti dai membri della rete durante l’estate. Quasi 2.400 informazioni sono state valutate in

tutta l’area di presenza del lupo in sei mesi.  L’espansione demografica continua con 145 zone di presenza permanente di cui 128 branchi (l’ultima valutazione invernale riportava 125 ZPP, di cui 106 branchi + 2 branchi senza segni di presenza).Ci sono stati 60 casi di riproduzione accertati durante il periodo di monitoraggio. Inoltre, alla fine dell’estate sono stati identificati 23 settori da monitorare, e il prossimo monitoraggio invernale si concentrerà sulla documentazione della situazione in queste aree.

Il report francese è disponibile qui. In Austria, nel 2020/2021, non sono stati individuati branchi sull’arco alpino. Sono 70 gli individui identificati grazie alle analisi genetiche tra il 2009 e il 2020. La maggior parte di questi sono lupi provenienti dai Paesi confinanti. Il primo branco si è stabilito nel nord del Paese, in un’area dedicata alle esercitazioni militari nel 2016, e si è riprodotto tutti gli anni.  Potete leggere il report completo qui

English

Monitoring is very important in order to estimate wolf abundance and distribution. Monitoring the wolf population is essential to guide management and conservation choices. In this newsletter we discuss wolf numbers in the 4 countries where the LIFE WolfAlps EU project is active: Italy, Slovenia, France and Austria. Enjoy reading!

In Italy, the results of the data analysis obtained in the national wolf monitoring 2020/2021 have been published: an initiative coordinated by ISPRA, mandated by MITE- Ministry for Ecological Transition for peninsular Italy and by LIFE WolfAlps EU for all Alpine regions (Liguria, Piedmont, Lombardy, Trentino, South Tyrol, Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia). 

During the national wolf monitoring, 10,672 signs of the species’ presence were collected over the Alps: 5,636 droppings, 3,226 videos and photos. Wolves’ tracks on snow totaling 1605 km were traced, and 71 dead wolves were recovered.  All this was only possible thanks to the involvement of about 1,513 operators of the “Alpine Regions Wolf Network “who traveled as much as 40,725 km to perform the sampling. 

This is the first time a comprehensive estimate has been made at the level of Alpine regions and on a national scale. Not only that, it is one of the first population-level estimates obtained in Europe, thus of great international significance. The estimate was obtained by applying innovative statistical models developed by an international team of three universities (Norwegian University of Life Sciences, University of Turin, and University of Chester) specializing in the study of abundance and trends in animal populations over time. Through this analysis, an accurate population size estimate was obtained, with an associated error range, a range that indicates the level of accuracy of the estimated value, called the credibility interval. Thus in 2020/2021 there are 946, with a range of 822 to 1099, wolves in the alpine regions. Of these, 680 (credibility interval: 602-774) individuals are part of the central-western part of the population and 266 (credibility interval: 204-343) belong to the central-eastern section of the population. On the other hand, there are 102 packs and 22 pairs in the alpine regions , for a total of 124 breeding units. Most of them are concentrated in the western portion of the alpine range, where 91 packs/pairs are present. By contrast, in the central eastern area there are 33 packs/pairs, almost half of which have transregional territories.

On the download-technical reports section of our website you can find the report and detailed reports from Piedmont, Liguria, Lombardy and Trentino.   On ISPRA’s YouTube channel you can see a video in which researchers explain the various stages

of national monitoring, from data collection to analysis; on the MUSE Facebook page, you can find the video presentation of the Alpine regions report.

In Slovenia, 12 herds have been identified in 2020/2021. The super population, which includes Slovenia and the neighboring area of Croatia has an estimated size of 138 wolves (121-168; 95% confidence interval), while the estimated number for Slovenia alone is 120 wolves (106-147; 95% confidence interval). 

You can read the full report here.

In France, the results of the 2021 summer monitoring have been published. The number of Areas of Permanent Presence is increasing across the country. There was a significant increase in the number of signs collected by network members during the summer. Nearly 2,400 signs of presence were assessed throughout the wolf presence area in six months.  

Population expansion continues with 145 permanent presence areas including 128 packs (the last winter assessment reported 125 PLZs, including 106 packs + 2 packs with no signs of presence).There were 60 cases of breeding established during the monitoring period. In addition, 23 areas were identified for monitoring at the end of the summer, and the next winter monitoring will focus on documenting the situation in these areas.

The French report is available here. 

In Austria, in 2020/2021, no packs were identified in the Alps. There are 70 individuals identified through genetic analysis between 2009 and 2020. Most of these are wolves from neighboring countries. The first pack was established in the north of the country, in an area dedicated to military exercises in 2016, and has been breeding every year. You find the Austrian report here

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