Previsioni Istat sui residenti in Italia: dai 59,2 milioni del 2021 si va ai 47,7 del 2070 (1). Meno persone in età lavorativa, più famiglie ma più piccole. Dati importanti che andrebbero vagliati con quanto accade in Europa, coi flussi migratori soprattutto in entrata e – meno prevedibile di tutti – i flussi dovuti a guerre e cosiddetti (2) disastri naturali.
Tendenza che si manifesta per economia e cultura, dove non si sa quale di queste due sia causa dell’altra.
L’aspetto positivo è che abbiamo un paese che ha più spazio (economico, ché quello fisico non manca) per accogliere migranti e profughi (che continueranno a crescere viste le varie vicende umane e “naturali”).
L’aspetto negativo è che previsioni e investimenti economici, politici e sociali che ci siamo abituati a redigere sempre in crescita, dovranno essere rivisti. A partire dal patrimonio che abbiamo, modellato su numeri che non saranno più tali: le case “grandi”, per esempio, dovranno essere rimodellate e/o usate in modo diverso; i lavoratori saranno meno ma dovranno avere reddito maggiore perché le famiglie più piccole spendono più di quelle più grandi; se non vogliamo lasciare a se stessa la popolazione più anziana, visto il rapporto 1/1 tra lavoratore e “pensionato” (previsto per il 2050), i soldi da qualche parte dovranno pur entrare per pensioni e assistenza (che è maggiore per gli anziani).
Ora che lo sappiamo, agiremo di conseguenza?
Così farebbe uno Stato razionale… ma l’Italia sembra non lo sia. Non ci risulta nessuna forza politica (di governo e opposizione… che è stata e che sarà) che, per esempio in questa campagna elettorale, abbia tra i suoi obiettivi una decrescita. Anzi. Tra demografi razionalisti e demagoghi del tipo “più baionette per la patria e mai sia immigrati”, tutti si contorcono per capire come fare a far fare più figli alle persone e lo promuovono anche con incentivi economici. La realtà, però, è altra. Le persone fanno meno figli e le previsioni dell’Istat ci mettono con le spalle al muro. Un bagno di realtà, oltre che di cultura demografica moderna, dovrebbe servire a prendere atto e organizzarsi di conseguenza. Forse – per i futuri governi – si dovrà considerare che la “la questione demografica” non debba essere trasversale a tutte le politiche (come lo è sempre stato finora), ma considerata a se stessa, pari alla questione migratoria: non dipartimenti o cose del genere, ma veri e propri ministeri con portafoglio.
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